EQMF Research Blog

Think Tanks and the Architecture of Modern policy

Wed, 15 Jul 2026 06:44:49 -0700

This report examines a paradox at the center of modern governance: some of the most consequential policy decisions in democratic societies are shaped by institutions that no one elects and few people can name. Think tanks — RAND, Brookings, Heritage, AEI, CAP, CSIS, and their counterparts abroad — occupy a space between academia and government, translating technical complexity into guidance that legislators, regulators, and executives can act on quickly.

The report's central argument is that this influence operates through ideas rather than formal authority: agenda-setting, framing, legislative drafting, media amplification, and the movement of personnel between research institutions and government offices. But it insists on holding that argument to real evidence rather than asserting it in the abstract, and the evidence complicates the clean version of the story at every turn.

The opening chapter defines what a think tank actually does and where different institutions sit on a spectrum from "explain the world" to "change the world" — a distinction that matters more than any single label. It then works through the specific mechanisms of influence (agenda-setting, framing, drafting, media relationships, staffing pipelines, coalition networks) before turning to how political parties actively use, filter, and sometimes discard think tank research rather than adopting it wholesale.

A chapter on funding is the book's evidentiary core. Using three documented cases — Brookings' fourteen-year funding relationship with Qatar and the subsequent FBI investigation into its former president; the American Enterprise Institute's ExxonMobil-linked climate positions; and the Center for American Progress's...Read More

Artificial intelligence should remain a servant of humanity

Thu, 16 Jul 2026 08:47:07 -0700

Artificial intelligence should remain a servant of humanity, never a force that defines human worth or replaces human moral responsibility ( Source Magnifica Humanitas by Pope Leo XIV)
Chapter 3 is the heart of Magnifica Humanitas. Pope Leo XIV examines the opportunities and dangers of artificial intelligence and asks a fundamental question:
Will technology serve humanity, or will humanity become subject to technology?
The principal points are:
Technology is a gift of human creativity. Scientific and technological progress can improve health, education, communication, and quality of life. The Church welcomes innovation when it genuinely serves human flourishing.
The greatest danger is the "technocratic paradigm." The Pope warns against a society in which efficiency, profit, and technological capability become the only criteria for decision-making. When technology becomes the measure of everything, human beings risk being treated as objects, data, or economic units rather than persons.
Artificial intelligence is powerful but not human. AI can process information, recognize patterns, and simulate conversation, but it cannot experience love, suffering, conscience, friendship, or moral responsibility. It imitates intelligence but does not possess wisdom or genuine understanding.
Power over AI must not be concentrated. Because AI increasingly influences economies, politics, healthcare, education, and public opinion, its development must be subject to democratic oversight, transparency, accountability, and international cooperation—not controlled solely by governments or large technology...Read More

"Europe 2031"

Thu, 16 Jul 2026 06:49:00 -0700

Summary of
https://frederike.substack.com/p/europe-2031-is-a-bet-not-a-forecast
Instead of radical measures that deepen US dependence, Europe should consider radical measures that reduce it (state investment in open-weight models, procurement policy, interoperability rules) — without sacrificing democracy, labor rights, or climate targets to a hypothetical.
What Europe 2031 says: A scenario written by investors, AI researchers, and think tankers predicting that if Europe doesn't secure "frontier" AI model access, it collapses economically and politically by 2031, forced to become a US protectorate, turn to China, or become irrelevant.
Its main "fix": Build massive AI computing power in partnership with US tech giants (Amazon, Microsoft, Google), form a coalition of countries to negotiate access, loosen labor laws, and pivot to robotics — all urgently, bypassing normal democratic caution.
Kaltheuner's core objection: This is one possible future dressed up as inevitable fact. It rests on a chain of unproven assumptions — that AI will transform society within years, that the "frontier" gap is real and permanent, that using top AI models makes countries richer, and that Europe can somehow win in robotics while still depending on the same US firms. None of these are settled.
Key practical problems she flags:
The compute build-out demanded (55 GW by 2031) would use more electricity than all of Germany — wrecking climate goals
It would deepen, not reduce, Europe's dependence on US hyperscalers
The "security guarantees" the scenario proposes are worthless — the scenario itself shows the US cutting off access when convenient
Digi Spain Telecom S.A.U.
Investor demand was unusually strong. Ahead of the listing, Digi Spain's subsidiary attracted nearly €1.3 billion of demand from investment funds and family offices, more than four times the targeted fundraising of up to €330 million. By completion, the offering was reported as several times oversubscribed, with investor demand significantly exceeding the number of shares available.
Analyst valuations came in above the IPO price. Based on assessments by BNP Paribas, CaixaBank, UBS and Barclays, the company was expected to achieve a post-IPO valuation of between €1.8 billion and €2.3 billion, excluding debt — notably above the ~€1.66-1.7 billion implied by the €5.60 offer price, suggesting the deal was priced conservatively relative to bank valuations.
The growth narrative got positive coverage. Analysts cited by Profit.ro described the company as a relatively rare growth opportunity in the European telecom sector, and Digi has established itself as the fourth-largest telecommunications operator in Spain by market share and one of the fastest-growing players in the market.
But coverage also flagged real caution points:
Leverage. Analysts also identified a higher level of indebtedness than many peers as a key consideration for investors.
Competitive/margin pressure. VoIP Review's pre-IPO commentary noted the company's low-cost challenger positioning brings exposure to a market with fierce pricing dynamics against incumbents Telefónica, Vodafone Spain, and MásOrange, and cautioned that public markets will demand discipline and predictable returns going forward.
Self-selected benchmarking. Telecoms.com's analysis was the most skeptical in tone, pointing out that in its own investor materials Digi Spain described itself...Read More

Does MISP matter?

Thu, 16 Jul 2026 05:56:20 -0700

Summary of article
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-misp-matters-europes-savings-investments-union-jens-schulte-jhonc/
Schulte argues that Europe's competitiveness hinges on mobilizing capital more effectively — not because Europe lacks savings, but because its capital markets remain fragmented (EU stock market cap sits at 73% of GDP vs. 270% in the US). He frames the recent MISP agreement among Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, and the Netherlands as an encouraging sign of political will to fix that fragmentation.
Writing from a CFO's perspective, he sees the stakes as going beyond regulatory technicalities: efficient capital markets mean easier cross-border investment, deeper liquidity, and a stronger ability to fund strategic priorities. He highlights the proposed "EU Inc." framework — a single harmonized EU corporate regime enabling companies to be founded digitally in as little as 48 hours — as a concrete step toward making Europe easier to build and scale businesses in.
He also points to MISP's push for more transparent, efficient post-trade infrastructure (trading venues, CCPs, depositories, settlement systems) and its recognition of distributed ledger technology as an opportunity for Europe to modernize market infrastructure, provided innovation stays balanced with investor protection.
Quoting German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil's warning that Europe can't afford to move too slowly, Schulte closes on the same note: integrated capital markets aren't just a regulatory goal but a strategic necessity for Europe's growth and autonomy — "a more integrated Europe will be a stronger Europe."
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Strategic Equity Finance

Wed, 15 Jul 2026 10:35:08 -0700

"Strategic equity franchise" is not a standard financial term, but it's increasingly used by investment banks, private equity firms, and long-term or government-adjacent investors to describe companies whose value extends beyond current financial performance — companies that matter enough, structurally, that governments or industrial partners have a durable interest in their continued independent success, separate from ordinary shareholder returns.
This is a genuinely different question from "is this a good business" or "will this company IPO soon." A company can be commercially unremarkable but strategically vital, or highly profitable with no strategic dimension at all. This report scores each company against two specific tests:Does a government, alliance, or industrial actor have a structural interest in this company's continued independent success — as a national-security asset, critical infrastructure, or a sovereignty hedge — beyond what its financial returns alone would justify?
Does the company reduce European dependence on non-European infrastructure in a sector broadly treated as strategically sensitive — defence, artificial intelligence, payments, energy and battery supply chains, or food and health security?
A company meeting either test is treated as a genuine strategic equity franchise. A company meeting neither — however good a business it is — is treated as a strong commercial company outside this report's specific lens, and flagged as such rather than forced to fit.
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Harnessing Data for Strategic Growth

Wed, 15 Jul 2026 06:29:09 -0700

In today’s rapidly evolving market, leveraging data effectively is crucial for strategic decision-making. Our latest post explores innovative data analysis techniques that can drive growth and optimize operational efficiency. Discover how businesses across sectors are transforming their approaches with tailored insights to stay competitive.
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